POLITICS AND NATURE

"If it be true, as has often been remarked, that sayings which become proverbial are generally founded in reason, it is not less true that when once established they are often applied to cases to which the reason of them does not extend." Federalist 53: James Madison (Publius)

People are Thinking

Dawn broke January 9, 2008 over America bringing with it new opportunities, an open future, and feelings of joy and possibility allowing true patriots the chance to breath free. It was not a good day for the pundits and prognosticators. They felt ill suited to their expense accounted dinners in Iowa and New Hampshire. Fighting to make themselves relevant, they turned 180 degrees and praised Hillary's brilliant moves, showing herself as a real person. A far cry from the attacks emanating from the public airwaves by everyone on CNN and Fox the day before yesterday when most everyone on the tube counted the woman out, looked to crown the black man king, and repeatedly confirmed her heartfelt show as just that. The media played the sigh over and over as if it were a moment of grand political theatre crafted by the heartless and evil queen. The only thing that could have been worse for Hillary Clinton would have been if her make-up looked like Shep Smith, Fox's truly able news caster. She was a disaster, they declared with the authority of the all knowing, omniscient, non-partisan, watchdogs they all claim to be. It is rumored talk radio spared no expense attacking the woman one young lady was recently overheard calling the antichrist. If they weren't on television, it is assured they would all be hanging their heads and if they had tails, they would droop between their legs. Each and every one would be wearing a look of shame. But there is no shame in television. And Hillary Clinton won the nation's first primary by three points over Barack Obama, the junior senator from the state of my youth.

The people of this nation should stand proud and take account of this day. The future is wide open. Both parties have substantive candidates who will take part in the wonder of the democratic process. The pundits and pollsters have been slapped down in their own arrogance. New Hampshire ushered in a new day with all the uncertainty and awe binding a people to a government and want to be leaders with the people. Nothing is assured and this is good for democracy. The republic requires an engaged citizenry motivated by possibility. There is no greater peril than apathy fueled by elites, ideological warriors, and armchair candidates. They lost the day which is a positive step into the abyss of the future.

The Experts Were Wrong....I Think That's Funny!

"Pundit:   A learned person; authority." The American Heritage Dictionary

A CNN poll the day before the New Hampshire primary concluded Barack Obama would crush Hillary with ten points and she would limp away into the world of the obscure, known only for her first campaign. If nothing else, this should be a lesson for Democrats believing there is nothing to stand in their way to the White House on January 20, 2009. Don't count out whoever wins the Republican debate in which nothing is known except people believe Mitt Romney will pander to anyone and they feel Fred Thompson is as tired and bored with democracy as he must have been with his ex wife.

All the news sources seem to be attacking the pundits today. As if they, the news sources, had nothing to do with the dismal tally of voter ideas. They seem to forget every election cycle the unreliable poll data of the polls in the past. They will hold up one or two successful polls and then convey this information into whatever reality governs the day at the time. It is quickly forgotten how fast Howard Dean plummeted after what appeared to be an acid flashback in Iowa back in 2004.

Collective amnesia sets in and none of the news services remind people that: George W. Bush almost meandered into the cryptic world of the non-producing ultra rich where spoiled men who have been members of the elite for their entire lives act like workers by cutting some brush occasionally on a giant ranch somewhere in Texas when he considered calling Al Gore to concede the presidency on election night 2000; John Kerry received a huge number of votes, only losing by three points to a president of a nation at war; John Kennedy in 1960 and Richard Nixon in 1968 both won by tiny popular vote margins; or that Ted Kennedy never had a chance in hell of winning the White House and he would never be more than a visitor in the people's house on Pennsylvania Avenue.

Pollsters live in secret worlds built on statistical methods, complex formulas, and coercive questionnaires. The thrive on methodology and content themselves with simplistic answers on a scale of 1-10 which supposedly expose feelings, thoughts, and individual analysis. The goal is to boil people down into neat little packages. The truth is, they have more impact, make more money, and influence more decisions than they are qualified for.

Polls provide good information about public attitudes and they can guide those interested in finding out why people hold the beliefs they do. But that is what they are. They are a guide. A professor once made a point that there is nothing wrong with politicians looking at polls because, after all, they are supposed to be representatives of the people they serve in a republic. Under this light, any president's complete ignorance of public desire seems to lack faith in democracy or public knowledge. At the same time, the news exhibits an over-reliance on polling data and an informed public should take them with a grain of salt and vote their hearts and minds.

Nothing will keep the pollsters down though. They will be back like mold in an dirty restroom corner. They'll work overtime now to show their merit. Everyone throughout the country will hear what their state will do and how other states will vote. South Carolina will see the vermin coming out of the woodwork. Cretins with an agenda like Frank Luntz will emerge from the ooze of the New Hampshire debacle to understand not the best public policy or leadership qualities but how to bamboozle the public into doing what good sheep should do which, for those people who pay these pollsters, means whatever they want the sheep to do. Need nuclear power or want to drill ANWR? Reframe the argument around energy independence and avoid questions of devastating pollutants. Want less regulation? Talk of nasty evil doers taking jobs and incentives to production. Need to pay a large corporation for government work and call it capitalism? Go to war.    

What Really Happened?

John McCain got the W in New Hampshire. Incidentally, one of the shames of the early twenty first century is this shorthand version of Win will always make those of us of a particular political persuasion cringe at the bad memories of an ignorant man. Be that as it may, McCain came out ahead in the Northeast. Romney is still talking in terms of the Olympics....as if anyone cares about his role in whatever games he worked on.

By his count, he's got two silvers and a gold. Wyoming, which few people probably know, had a caucus sometime or other and Mitt won. Wyoming is the least populous state, ranking behind North Dakota and Alaska by an average of approximately 140,000 people. Wyoming even has less people than the District of Columbia. It is the home of the Vice President, Yellowstone, and Jackson Hole. But Mitt won Wyoming and he has a right to be proud.

Nevertheless, where things actually matter, the man from Mass has thus far fallen short. He's out some cash and I, for one, think his money would have been better spent with me. But that is neither here nor there. McCain and Huck are the big winners of the first two. My man Rush hates Huck and that reason alone is good enough for me to like him but, additionally, he is a generally good hearted man (no wonder Limbaugh doesn't like him). When asked about Hillary's "break down" Huck explained the tough aspects of running for president and told the interviewer the media should "give her a break". Imagine that. A Republican candidate standing up for Hillary Clinton. I thought Jean was going to pass out. I'm surprised I didn't pass out, but I've been listening to the candidates with a lot more regularity and wasn't caught by shock and awe at what right wing extremists would consider an unseemly show of humanity from one of their own.

 On the Democratic side, the anger and division is coming out strong from the Edwards campaign and he says he's determined to march on through all fifty states, much to the chagrin of the Obama campaign since many of the people supporting Edwards are most likely to vote Obama, but that goes into the entire punditry thing I've railed against thus far, so who really knows but the folks in the voting booths. It would seem likely if John E was to get out of the race, whoever he endorses gets a big boost. It is a long and heated race though and many things can happen. Edwards is angry though. That is one thing we can learn from him. And if he were to win, all of this talk of negotiation and conciliation will be left for dead.  

Dennis Kucinich comes out of New Hampshire looking more like an antagonistic dwarf who's ability to change anything grows smaller by the day. Mike Gravel somehow gained some national attention and for that, who knows who is to blame.

No one talks about Ron Paul much anymore, despite his ability to gather huge sums of cash from a loyal following which can only be described as fanatical. Libertarians have found their messiah and they see that it is good. He thinks New Orleans should have just been left to themselves after Katrina and the people would have been much better off. He likened it to the Galvaston Hurricane at the turn of the twentieth century. He alone, from what I heard, pointed out the fear generated by the near attack by Iranian ships and the idiocy of such a claim. Anyone who saw those Iranian speed boats next to our battle ships who can truly tremble for our nation needs to have their head examined.

The entire election, however, bodes well for the coming months. I'm sure the system will break down somewhere along the line, and if it doesn't, the media folk will be sure to create some sort of crisis to get people hot and bothered and insinuate that the end is near. However, the most important thing for a political scientist looking at the health of a nation is engagement and interest in the process. So far, these two indicators show the nation to be, indeed, very healthy and freedom is in no danger of dying anytime soon.

The real dawn of this election period came this morning when people throughout the other 47 states which haven't voted realize the importance of their ideas and the critical need to get out and take part in a process which has served this nation well for over two hundred years now. There is a long way to go and there are many challenges facing the country. With active and engaged citizens, hope is always hovering just under the surface and new dawns look to be even more beautiful and illuminating than those witnessed in the past. Sans violence and spite, this country is really incredible and there is good reason to be optimistic about tomorrow.