POLITICS AND NATURE

Well tomorrow is the first primary taking place in Iowa. It is irritating how heavily the major news organizations focus on polling. Polling is a big dollar business. It is easy for people to make money as a pollster. The social order is overwhelmingly flipped into a matter of winning. Hope will die tomorrow for a majority of the candidates seeking the highest electoral post in the land. Media resources escape the process of actual analysis by prognosticating over winners and losers instead of a final look at what may happen with the leaders. But that is the way it goes.

Poll numbers push people in the electorate in an unfair and illegitimate fashion. In 2004 a major university poll in Arizona showed President Bush well ahead of the Kerry campaign months before the vote. It is unquestionable this particular poll affected both the Kerry campaign staffers and voter opinion. Not due to policy differences or leadership abilities but because of consistent reliance on polls, the state voted for the President by a small margin.

Quixotic adventures in presidential politics die in Iowa unless they last on weakened breath for a few more days to New Hampshire. Ari Fleischer, Bush's former spokesman, told Fox News whatever happens the Republican Party wants Hillary as their candidate. No Surprise there. They have been gathering evidence and starting up the smear machines on a heavy level waiting for her to provide them with a demon to run against for the next 11 months.

What Do Polls Do?

Polls have a significant place within American politics. It's like a major betting scheme but it provides a sense of what people are thinking and believing. It offers a glimpse into our ideas. That being said, I think they are often poorly worded, they show people a sliding scale which is silly for most people to comprehend how they rate the importance of the Iraq War, Education, or Health Care on a scale of 1-10. They often work but it is my considered opinion that the negative effects of polling outweighs its benefits.

I hope all the polls are wrong and Joe Biden comes in strong in Iowa which will give him the momentum to keep going past New Hampshire. Nevertheless, polls make a big difference whatever my feelings. Today a forum at the American University focused on previewing the races throughout the year of our Lord 2008. Now, if polls were accurate, especially this far out, no one need run for anything.

The hills and valleys experienced by Mike Huckabee and John McCain illustrate the impotence polls have in being used to predict electoral victories. McCain was dropped from the political scene for a long while due to the polls. Huck was thought dead until Iowa's polls showed him duking it out with Mitt over the big prize in Iowa. He decided to head to Jay Leno tonight where he will hopefully play the bass with the band. Probably won't fix much for him in Iowa and its a strange decision, but he has been fooled by the pollsters into believing his belief in the Lord has it in for him. There is an old Islamic saying going something like; trust in Allah but tie up your camel. Huck apparently left Iowa in God's hands. Pat Robertson won Iowa once as I understand it. As did Dick Gephardt. So it may not mean as much as they say.

Republicans Stomping over the Land

Ari Fleischer believes it is a rough road ahead for the Grand Old Party candidates. The lay of the land is rough on the right side of the path. Every poll everywhere shows the Democrats heavily favored throughout the country. The only hope the right wing has is found in the junior senator from New York. Otherwise, they are dead in the water. They are like the Democrats in 1968 when they imploded, attacked from without and within with a viciousness bringing infamy to Chicago and its mayor who held power like a feudal king.

Despite Republican woes, it would not surprise anyone who watches politics if the Democrats continue to illustrate the hubris dragging on the party since they won in '06. They exhibit quite a bit more reserve than Bush did after he posited, without any support, he had a mandate. This is the downside of politics. We have seen the Republican ability to set up terrible predictions in the past, only to bellow victoriously when things are not as bad as they promised it would be. I wouldn't be shocked if the Republicans win the White House and the Congress. In a democracy, it has been said, the people get the government they deserve. We shall see.

Romney and Huck are at each other's throats. This is what polls do. Force otherwise foolish and raging political candidates into all out war. They exhibit characteristics of rabid pit bulls or roosters redying for a cock fight. Michael Vick was rumored to have exclaimed the horror of dog fighting turned him to Jesus. Nothing could be further from the truth in presidential politics. Civility is dead, they say, and so is the American Dream. Only if people allow that to happen. Thirty second spots don't reveal all the motivating factors in politics. This definately looks to be an interesting year.